Ask any former living president, or read the dead one’s
memoirs or presidential documents in the national archives, and you will find
at least one thing they have in common: they came to understand their power was
largely a function of the will of the people.
Yes, presidents do have specific constitutional powers, but without
significant approval ratings they lose institutional support from federal
bureaucracies and members of congress. I
expect our new president will become an historical touchstone for this reality.
He enters office with the lowest approval ratings of any newly inaugurated
president and those may prove to be the highest of his presidency. (See http://time.com/4636142/donald-trump-inauguration-polls-approval-ratings/.) In the vernacular of Wall Street, he is a
slam-dunk “short.”
That is not to say presidents don’t learn this and
recover. President Reagan, known to many
as “the great communicator,” was keenly aware of keeping what he called “the
common man” by his side throughout his presidency.[1] He had polling, although it was fairly
rudimentary by today’s standards, and he would even note in his diary how many
people gathered on the sidewalks as his motorcade passed. When the number of people who waved
enthusiastically declined, he would take to television and give a national
address, which were covered by the three big networks. It worked.
Not only would the gears of government work for him, Speaker Tip
O’Neill, his partisan nemesis in the House, had to make deals.
President Trump has neither the skills nor the temperament
to manage this phenomenon. 140-character
insults via Twitter will not endear him to the will of the people, nor has he
surrounded himself (as other presidents have, including Reagan) with top-flight
advisors and cabinet members. Most, if
not all of his cabinet picks are, at best, bench-warmers in the game of governing. As attractive as ‘outsider’
status is during a campaign, it is crippling when the task of governing
begins. Just ask President Carter.
As I have written before, your future and the future of this
country are in your hands. And, although
the challenge seems daunting at times, you and your family, neighbors and
friends have the power. (See https://www.indivisibleguide.com/web.)
Rejecting Trump at every turn will quickly degrade his
power. He will lose what I call
referential power, critical to the support of those who actually make things
happen. I expect once Senator McConnell
and Speaker Ryan get what they want from Trump, Mike Pence will be sworn
in. Pence may not be what many of you want,
but probably no worse (and perhaps even better) than Trump. And, 2020 will arrive before you know it.
[1]
William Steding, Presidential Faith and
Foreign Policy: Jimmy Carter the Disciple and Ronald Reagan the Alchemist, (New
York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2014), Ch. 6.
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